Cover Story

By Rob Holbert Managing Editor

Could it be the City of Perpetual Promise has finally uncrossed her fingers?

The recent selection of Mobile’s Brookley Field as the home for the Northrop Grumman/EADS plant that will build the next generation of Air Force refueling tanker has most of the local political and business leadership turning figurative - and perhaps literal - back handsprings. Coupled with last year’s selection of north Mobile County for the massive ThyssenKrupp steel plant, the construction of the Mitchell Regional Cancer Center and impressive growth by companies like Austal USA and Mobile Aerospace Engineering, even the most diehard naysayer might have a hard time not seeing good economic times ahead for the Port City.

But what exactly does that mean? Are more and better jobs the panacea we’ve been looking for all this time? Will it mean better schools, an improved arts scene, a vibrant downtown and an enviable national reputation? Some say yes, it will. But others caution that with this type of good fortune come challenges and changes that will require action directed by smart planning.

In trying to gaze into the crystal ball and see where the greater Mobile area will be in five or 10 years, several experts said the city is indeed in an enviable position, but almost all said there are going to be stiff challenges ahead.

More jobs

Someone tasked with helping to lure new business to this area would seemingly have it made right now. The pelts are on the wall. It’s Miller Time. But Bill Sisson, the vice president of economic development for the Mobile Area Chamber of Commerce, says there is still a lot of work to do. While ThyssenKrupp and Northrop/EADS are bringing thousands of new jobs, another huge payoff could be in how many ancillary businesses come with them. That is, how many companies doing business with these big boys are going to move into their back yard and set up shop. Sisson says that could mean thousands and thousands more jobs in the long run.

“The thing is we really don’t know how many ancillary businesses will come,” Sisson said. “We know some suppliers will have to be here, but there could be 3,000-to-5,000 jobs in addition.”

Sisson said one of the things that can help more recruitment is a more vibrant downtown. Mobile’s downtown is something he thinks has improved over recent years, but Sisson also thinks there is room for it to get better if it’s going to serve as a lure for business.

“I’m a big believer in downtowns. We’ve got to have a strong city center, a strong heart. It tells you about a city, that the people take pride in their city. Downtowns are important,” Sisson said. “I think EADS will probably help downtown more than ThyssenKrupp.”

While most cities would be thrilled to have just one project like Northrop/EADS or ThyssenKrupp coming in, Sisson says the room for potential homeruns in the next few years could be in something like a corporate headquarters coming here. He said that is the type of sea change having big projects can effect. While any big new business may not be THE business in town, it may see a city where things are happening and want to be part of that.

“It’s more ‘come on in, the water’s fine.’ Success begets success. Can we sell it to a big company that they’re going to be the big dog. No. But we’ve got so many good things going on,” Sisson said.

Quality of life

The buzzphrase of the past few years when it comes to growing a “cool” or livable city is the “creative class,” meaning those folks who bring life to a city by supporting such things as the arts, restaurants, outdoor activities and beautification. The idea was popularized by Dr. Richard Florida’s book, “The Rise of the Creative Class.” Generally the concept is that in today’s highly mobile society, cities have to provide lifestyle and job opportunities shoulder to shoulder.

“You have to really think about the quality of life. The talent is more mobile than ever before,” said Steven Pedigo, a researcher for the Creative Class Group. “What does Mobile have to offer young people? When we talk quality of life, people think we’re talking about coffee shops and restaurants, but that’s not really it. Mobile is right on the coast. It could mean boating and beaches. Quality of life can be defined in different ways. Everyone is not going to be an Austin or San Francisco.”

Pedigo dismissed the generally accepted idea of “Best Places” lists that generally tend to put sprawling cities atop their charts.

“That stuff is a lot of garbage. People want different things at different times in their lives,” he said.

Pedigo says high-paying jobs like those that will be offered at ThyssenKrupp and Nothrop/EADS will attract new people to the area—people who will demand things they may have had in other cities.

“It’s something where the community can start to drive the quality of life as well. At the end of the day, the talent will drive things,” he said.

Tick, tick, tick…

David Trent says time is of the essence. As the site director for the Mobile Engineering Center for Airbus North America, Trent is already feeling the electricity generated by the just-announced Northrop/EADS deal. (EADS is Airbus’ parent company.)

“One of the things that needs to be emphasized is that we don’t have a lot of time. The imperativeness of this needs to be recognized. In the next two years, ThyssenKrupp is going to be hiring, Austal is going to need more people, Airbus will need 1,800 people and MAE will be adding employees,” Trent said. “We’ve got to get good people in place.”

While Trent is a relative newcomer to Mobile, he thinks there may be some parallels to the city’s World War II period, when the population boomed and business took off. It also was a time when housing was severely crunched and the city’s infrastructure was severely tested.

“Hopefully we can manage the growth, but it’s got to be done with speed,” Trent said. “You’re going to see a lot of new faces in town. The people in Mobile need to get ready.”

Trent is already trying to hire 100 new engineers at his facility, and says those coming here want to know Mobile is somewhere they can live the rest of their lives. Trent says his time in Mobile encourages him that recruitment of the necessary workers will be possible, but says there are opportunities for improvement that can help, particularly with the school system.

Trent believes the average Mobilian will feel the difference once the city’s new employers are up and running. They will bring thousands of new people to town and that is going to provide a challenge for the existing housing and infrastructure.

“I hope some of the underlying things that are good about the Mobile culture remain. We have friendly people who are open to new ideas. I hope that remains, no matter how big we get,” Trent said.

Growing pains?

By the second half of this year, the average Mobilian should start feeling the first effects of Mobile’s new economy, according to Dr. Semoon Chang, an economics professor at the University of South Alabama. He thinks the direct and indirect jobs created by the ThyssenKrupp and Northrop/EADS projects is going to be transformative.

“We can’t supply all of these jobs, direct or indirect. We probably need at least 10,000 new workers and at least half of those will come from outside,” Chang said. “Starting from the second half of this year, you’ll see the restaurants getting busier and wonder what’s going on.”

Chang said the biggest change for the Mobile area will be the way we are perceived nationally. He says there will be a dramatic change there as people across the nation realize the economy here is booming. The perception change began when the Mercedes plant came in near Montgomery, he said, but this will push things further.

“People will realize we have a real, viable active community,” he said.

Chang expects a rather dramatic population increase over the next few years, one that’s going to require a lot of new housing. Right now, he says, there aren’t enough housing projects underway to meet the needs we’ll see in a relatively short time.

“We need 2,500 apartments under construction and 3,000 in planning,” he said. “We don’t have a major single-family housing construction underway. In the city limits, we’re already running out of space. Condominium construction will also step up.”

Other changes Chang sees are an increased globalization of the city. He says the schools need to stress languages, particularly German, French and Spanish, as they are the languages of the area’s large employers and many of the workers who will be coming in.

Chang even suggests businesses inside the city should embrace the coming globalization by doing things such as accepting Euros as payment. It’s something he says is happening in New York, but not catching on many other places yet.

“We can be one of the pioneers,” he said.

After Hurricane Katrina, Chang says the city absorbed about 10,000 new residents, 3,000 of whom stayed. While people living in and around downtown didn’t see a lot of the pressures this put on existing facilities, Chang says west Mobile was a different place because of it. Restaurants were packed and traffic was congested. Eventually things returned mostly to normal. That’s not likely to happen this time.

“Probably what we need to do is work on infrastructure rapidly,” he said.

Chang also predicts Mobile’s downtown will see dramatic change.

“Downtown will look so different. Gradually the rents will go up and the businesses that cater to lower incomes will leave and new businesses will come in,” he said. “Change has begun. It’s starting.”

Rob Holbert is Lagniappe managing editor. Contact him at rholbert@lagniappemobile.com.

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